Climate change impact on Bend topic of OSU-Cascades Science Pub talk

The climate change talk will focus on issues specific to Bend and Central Oregon. O’Neill will address the ways that climate change can affect life in the High Desert, including reduced snowpack, longer fire seasons, early water runoff, and impacts on this area’s plants and wildlife.

“Some of the climate model projections show that the snowpack will become more variable, and will lessen, even as precipitation amounts stay the same, but there will be more rainfall instead of snow,” explained O’Neill.

In his talk, O’Neill will explain how the changing climate could affect this area’s outdoor recreation potential, as less snow and higher snowlines will diminish the snow quality and season length at Hoodoo and Mt. Bachelor.

Climate change could also bring an increase in invasive species, such as cheatgrass, in Central Oregon, and impact nesting bird habitats. There’s the human impact too, including an increased risk for wildfire and inconsistent flow of water for irrigators.

“That will put more stress on agriculture. There won’t that spring run-off, and the climate is just going to be warmer,” said O’Neill.

O’Neill’s knowledge of climate change is the culmination of years of study and research in California and Oregon. He studied atmospheric science at UC Davis and then earned a master’s degree in Oceanography from Oregon State University. It was at OSU where he focused his research on how the ocean and the weather interacted with each other.

“Ocean temps and currents affect weather. And lower frequency variability in the atmosphere impacts the ocean,” said O’Neill. “I used models and satellite observations to study that. I continued to this day studying how the earth’s climate is impacted by the interaction between the ocean and the weather.”

His interest in the weather from an early age comes from growing up near Rapid City, South Dakota, where his father worked as a foreman at a cement plant.

As a kid, he was fascinated by the variable Midwest weather. In summer he watched the thunderstorms and the occasional tornado. In winter it was blizzards and cold snaps that sent the mercury into rapid retreat.

“Especially in spring and fall, we’d get these huge changes in temperature,” said O’Neill. It would be beautiful and 70 degrees and then the next day it would be 50 degrees and snowing, that was just infinitely fascinating to me.”

O’Neill’s family moved from South Dakota to Sacramento when he 13. It wasn’t the easiest of transitions.

“Everyone was more sophisticated and we were like these country bumpkins. We didn’t dress or talk right. It was a rough age to move there,” he said.

But O’Neill soon found his own way. He volunteered at a local TV station, helping out the station’s weatherman a few days a week.

“The forecasts weren’t very good so he had to make adjustments or do his own thing, so sometimes I would have to add up numbers and do some basic calculations,” said O’Neill.

That led to an eye-opening four years at UC Davis, where his interest in oceanography blossomed. He considered at one point relocating to a tropical beach and setting up instruments in the sand to measure the ocean’s impacts.

“I quickly realized that most of (the work) is in front of a computer, involving satellite data and model data,” said O’Neill. “Occasionally I do get to go out and see and collect data from instruments that I employ.”

O’Neill’s most recent focus is on precipitation and drought variability over the Pacific Northwest, and how that impacts people and business sectors — work he does when he is wearing his state climatologist hat. Every two years that role requires him to issue an Oregon climate assessment.

He also receives grants from NASA to conduct weather and ocean monitoring work. In October he will board a 200-foot ship and spend three weeks off the coast of San Francisco conducting research and experiments, specifically on surface currents. The work includes launching radiosonde balloons and testing new equipment.

At Oregon State this past fall he taught a graduate-level class on Fluid Earth, an introductory class on oceanography, weather, and climate. This winter semester he taught satellite oceanography, teaching students how satellites measure the temperature of the ocean, winds, and ocean color.

Doing instrumentation on a tropical beach still sounds alluring but Oregon — with all its snow, wind, rain, and temperature changes — has become his passion.

“I love the PNW now. I like the rainy season now,” said O’Neill. “The first season I was here it was a shock to the system after moving from California but after that, I became fine with it. I started skiing, got some waterproof clothes for hiking, and learned how to adapt. Now that I am doing drought monitoring work I really appreciate the rain!”

The March 16 Science Pub talk with Larry O’Neill is scheduled for 6 to 7:30 p.m. Interested individuals can sign up for the talk through the OSU-Cascades website. From the campus’ main page (osucascades.edu), click on “for the community” and then “science pubs.”